Insights

Howard Marks is worried that value investors have lost the plot. In his January 2021 memo, “Something of Value”, he writes that their obsession with cheapness—or more specifically, with a naïve definition of cheapness—has confounded their ability to spot genuine value. This focus on “cheap” as a byword for “value”...

The last time Mike visited New York (before Covid-19, of course), he decided to stop somewhere he hadn’t been in 15 years: the New York Public Library. A lot had changed since his last visit there.  And as he walked into the building—then named after the man who the last...

A recurring theme when we here at Castleforge attempt to prognosticate over the central London office investment market is that it is very hard to predict the trajectory of cap rates. On the one hand, London is a volatile market and is not immune to economic cycles that create cap...

"We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten. Don't let yourself be lulled into inaction." - Bill Gates Another day, another article announcing the end of demand for office space. A couple weeks ago,...

With recent political movements drawing greater attention to the potential impacts of human activity on climate change and governments coming together to discuss ways to reduce and mitigate these impacts, it is no surprise that ESG issues are at the forefront of the minds of stakeholders in the property industry....

Our readers will know that we have been covering the WeWork story for a number of years now and that we have been sceptical, at least to the extent that WeWork’s business model was a poor bargain for landlords and likely obscured a reduction in net absorption in central London...

At Castleforge we foster an environment that encourages continued learning and development of each member of staff. Examples include skill-specific educational courses that team members are welcomed to take, our internal library filled with books (albeit many of which are still in pristine – i.e., unread – condition) or our...

For those of you who attended our annual meeting, which was held in London on May 9th, you will know that we spoke in some detail about the three main pillars of our investment strategy: vertical integration, thematic investing and operational enhancement. Of course, we're always keen either to challenge...

On a recent trip to Berlin to meet with the buyer of 160 Aldersgate (a Germany-based fund), Mike and our colleague Martin were walking around the Alexa shopping centre in Mitte. Suddenly, Martin stopped and turned to Mike, remarking with some surprise "even the adverts are all in English!" Of...

History never repeats itself exactly, but we often experience echoes of history where the characters are the same, even if the actors change. It is therefore often helpful to draw parallels to previous market cycles as a way to help us understand what may be happening now. For the London...

Given the substantial attention dedicated to a market update at our recent Annual Meeting, we thought that rather than a letter about the market, it would be more interesting to put together a one-off discussion piece focused on the U.K. planning system. It has occurred to us that planning risk...

Whilst there may be an affordability crisis in relation to the price of housing for sale, there is not the same crisis in relation to rental prices, particularly outside of London. Rents have remained relatively stable in relation to wages in recent years. Our research shows that many of the...